Consultant – System Dynamics Modeler for Horn of Africa Livestock Systems Model – Remote At Mercy Corps

Background:

Mercy Corps is a leading global organization powered by the belief that a better world is possible. In disaster, in hardship, in more than 40 countries around the world, we partner to put bold solutions into action — helping people triumph over adversity and build stronger communities from within.

Together with the impact of climate change, shocks to livestock systems including drought, floods, conflict, animal disease and other natural disasters have devastating effects on livestock markets and small-medium scale producers of livestock, which contribute to between 10 and 30% of GDP in the Horn of Africa (HoA) countries of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia. This, in turn, has serious implications for the economic development and food security of households in arid and semi-arid lands. While current early warning information systems are somewhat effective in channeling humanitarian assistance post-shock, they are less effective in strengthening early responses that capitalize on local governance and market systems and prevent the worst effects of recurrent crises.

Purpose / Project Description:

As an organization focused on building resilience, Mercy Corps seeks to address this challenge, using data science to target more comprehensive systems-based interventions that safeguard individual livelihoods and livestock markets, thus ensuring the economic and food security of more households in the region. By leveraging the cloud computing capabilities of Amazon Web Services (AWS) with SD models of livestock system dynamics, Mercy Corps plans to build a platform that will aid decision makers and program implementation staff in the region to understand the impacts of shocks, policies and decisions on the system and to move forward the timeline for action in the face of a shock.

This work will support the modeling portion of an integrated platform which will include a “flight simulator” that allows users to adjust parameters to see the impacts of shocks and policies on the system and therefore identify and inform specific interventions on the livestock system.

The Data for Impact (D4I) team is managing the creation of this tool and has performed exploratory analysis of the systems framework for livestock in the HoA and has identified a number of potential submodels, variables and data that would inform SD sub-models for the various subsystems identified.

Relevant Model Scoping Information:
Model Objectives

For the first iteration of these models, Mercy Corps is hoping to build models that will aid Mercy Corps staff in Somalia in answering the following questions Note: these questions are not final and can/may be refined upon commencing the modeling process

• *Producer Submodel:When does restocking by Mercy Corps work and when does it fail?*** Restocking, the process of providing new livestock producers either through direct transfer or in kind (through cash payments) has not always been an effective solution in drought response. Often restocking is done immediately after a drought, and animal health can quickly decline or animals may die prematurely.
• *Household Economy Submodel:What are the characteristics of a household economy that reduces livestock losses and protects herds? [Still exploratory, may need to refine or adjust]***It is understood from our research that pastoral households in this region have a variety of different activities that can bring in cash, but that wealth is most often accumulated and stored in heads of livestock. From a resilience standpoint, Mercy Corps wants to understand how cash inflows and expenditures and wealth accumulated in livestock are managed to reduce losses and bolster animal health. We would hope that this information could better inform decisions on when, how and if to provide in-kind or direct cash support during shocks and work can be done to focus on activities that will support household resilience through shocks like drought by supporting activities that protect and increase livestock wealth. This question is especially exploratory and may need to be adjusted or refined.
• *Markets Submodel:Which part(s) of the livestock market chain should Mercy Corps target in activities or otherwise focus on to best improve the economic livelihood and resilience of households?***The livestock market system in the HOA is complex with various levels of physical market activity and a couple of different models of intermediary traders and buyers between the Somali Corridor and the rest of the region. Mercy Corps would like to understand where the activities of low and middle-income producers are most central as well as any upstream effects (i.e. export prices/volumes) that may impact how producers, traders, or brokers behave within the system. With this knowledge, Mercy Corps would be able to better target its Market Systems Development activities and market level interventions to provide the most palpable impact on resilience for low and middle income producers.
• *Rangeland Health Submodel:What impact does climate change and governance have on rangeland health and in turn, animal health?*** Degraded rangeland for grazing from climate change, overgrazing, fragmentation of communal grazing lands, land grabbing, and lack of coordination/governance around rangeland practices have led to a decreasing amount of land for grazing which has knock-on effects of negative animal health outcomes and decreased production of livestock.
• Water/Climate Change: Where and how are the ASAL rangelands of the Horn of Africa most vulnerable to drought through their water systems?Access to water is the key determinant for the migration of nomadic pastoralists in the Horn and a key determinant of where sedentary agro-pastoralists choose to settle. The amount and location of available water will also have important knock-on effects for animal health, disease prevalence, and other human factors like conflict, migration, and market prices. Ultimately, water is the key factor in drought, the most impactful and persistent shock in the region, and this model will hopefully capture the impacts of climate change by accepting parameters for different global rainfall and temperature scenarios through climate modeling. Note: This module may be able to be folded into the Rangeland Health Submodel
• *Community Animal Health Worker Submodel:What structures for CAHW/veterinary services are sustainable in the Horn of Africa context?*** Community Animal Health Workers are often trained by NGOs and encouraged or empowered to start practices to fill the much needed gap in animal health services. These businesses are often very short lived and fail for a number of reasons including an inability for livestock holders to be able to afford these services (despite clear demand for the services) or lack of business capital or knowledge
• Animal Disease Submodel: What is the theoretical number of infected and dead livestock in a given region for the major diseases that either impact the value of animals (Lumpy Skin disease, parasites and worms) or shut down markets (Rift Valley Fever, Foot and Mouth Disease, and Contagious caprine/bovine pleuropneumonia)? A number of major livestock diseases are endemic to the region including those listed above. Generally these can be bucketed into two main areas of concern: those diseases that impact animal health and wellbeing (and ultimately market value) and those that shut down markets due to their high level of transmissibility. Knowledge around this question and from this submodel would feed into variables on the health of animals that could impact the producer submodel and information on prevalence of disease that shuts down markets, which could be included as a shock trigger under the market systems submodel.

These problem areas will likely require the development of most, if not all of the submodels presented above, but these will be officially determined at the outset of the consultancy.

Boundary Definition

These models will support Mercy Corps operations, programming decisions and decisions of daily livestock advisors. It is not meant to inform or contribute to national government or UN policy making except as it directly relates to Mercy Corps operations.

Geographic Scope

The geographic scope of this modeling will focus on livestock systems in Somalia and the Somali region of Ethiopia, building a modular set of models with core structure that could be parameterized and augmented for the future. The intention is to focus on pastoral livestock activities (both nomadic and sedentary agro-pastoralists) particularly in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) within the Somali cultural boundaries (i.e. Somalia + the Somali region of Ethiopia).

Consultant Activities: The Consultant will:

• Contribute to a kickoff meeting with HQ based project team to:
  • Orient consultant to the project
  • Discuss initial conceptual loop diagrams from preliminary interviews, submodel descriptions and data inventory from scoping activities
  • Plan for modeling discussions with team members
  • Define the Minimum Viable Product model based on scoping, existing models and consultant experience
• Conduct both conceptual loop diagramming and stock and flow diagramming discussions with a diverse and representative pool of Mercy Corps livestock advisors and other key informants to distill the essential components and variables of the livestock system in the Horn of Africa.
• Develop a minimum viable product model, based on a synthesis of existing livestock models and research with Mercy Corps staff: quantitative submodels for 3-4 key components of the system using either Vensim or Ventity. The submodels will be chosen from a list developed in scoping and after the modeling discussions and consultation with the project team. They are likely to include household cash flows, producer/herd dynamics, market dynamics, and herd health.
• Partner with other experts to convert Vensim/Ventity models into Python or to run inside a cloud-based AWS application (or conduct this work if consultant has this capability).
• Conduct model calibration activities with data sets and key informants and stakeholders and identify data needs to better calibrate the model.
• Develop user guides for the models to ensure transparency and smooth handover.

Consultant Deliverables:

The Consultant will provide:

• Annotated models and interview notes.
• Vensim or Ventity files with complete submodels for the themes identified and decided by the project team and the consultant.
• User guides that outline the purpose, limitations, and bounds of the submodels with full documentation of the equations in the model.
• (If within the skillset of the modeler) WebAssembly or Python code in SDEverywhere or PySD to enable model runs within the AWS environment. Please include as a priced deliverable if it is something you are capable of completing.

Timeframe / Schedule:

Consultant will work with the D4I team to develop a timetable for the deliverables in the first week of the consultancy during the kickoff meeting.

The projected end date for the consultancy is June 30, 2022 with a possibility for extension into further phases of the modeling.

The Consultant will report to:

Senior Technical Program Manager, Data for Impact

The Consultant will work closely with:

• Data For Impact Advisor, T4D
• Senior Livestock Advisor, TSU

The following persons will be kept informed about the progress of the project:**

• Senior Director, Technology for Development, TSU
• Senior Director, Economic Growth, TSU
• Senior Director, Resilience, TSU
• Director, Agriculture, TSU
• Deputy Regional Director, Africa

Required Experience & Skills:

• 5-10 years of experience in relevant technical field
• Demonstrated experience in the following:
  • Systems dynamics modeling of complex systems using Vensim and Ventity software.
  • Quantitative modeling and analysis around international development, humanitarian action, livestock systems and/or agricultural systems.
• Demonstrated understanding of or experience with modeling livestock systems in the Horn of Africa (or elsewhere in the world)
• Experience working in humanitarian/development contexts is a significant asset
• Experience with programmatic implementation of system dynamics modeling a significant asset (i.e. SDEverywhere, PySD)

Diversity, Equity & Inclusion

Achieving our mission begins with how we build our team and work together. Through our commitment to enriching our organization with people of different origins, beliefs, backgrounds, and ways of thinking, we are better able to leverage the collective power of our teams and solve the world’s most complex challenges. We strive for a culture of trust and respect, where everyone contributes their perspectives and authentic selves, reaches their potential as individuals and teams, and collaborates to do the best work of their lives.

We recognize that diversity and inclusion is a journey, and we are committed to learning, listening and evolving to become more diverse, equitable and inclusive than we are today.

Equal Employment Opportunity

We are committed to providing an environment of respect and psychological safety where equal employment opportunities are available to all. We do not engage in or tolerate discrimination on the basis of race, color, gender identity, gender expression, religion, age, sexual orientation, national or ethnic origin, disability (including HIV/AIDS status), marital status, military veteran status or any other protected group in the locations where we work.

Safeguarding & Ethics

Mercy Corps team members are expected to support all efforts toward accountability, specifically to our stakeholders and to international standards guiding international relief and development work, while actively engaging communities as equal partners in the design, monitoring and evaluation of our field projects. Team members are expected to conduct themselves in a professional manner and respect local laws, customs and MC’s policies, procedures, and values at all times and in all in-country venues.